Arctic warming will drastically change the tundra ecosystems resulting in decline of native biological diversity with unknown implications for ecosystem services and the well-being of indigenous-and local communities. Broad-scale transitions of vegetation relating to climate change and herbivory have been documented in the past, but less is known about the implications for biological diversity, ecosystem services and local adaptation to such changes. In EcoShift we will, in collaboration with the JPI BioDiversa project FATE, employ scenario methodologies to synthesize our current understanding of broad-scale transitions of vegetation and their linkages to biological diversity, ecosystem services, local well-being and adaptations. We build these scenarios on literature review, systematic expert elicitation, and data from the FATE team based on paleoecological data, experimental and observational studies, and ethnographic data on indigenous-and local knowledge. Spatial forecasts derived from the scenarios will be tested for the Varanger peninsula where we have ground truth data from both ES Arctic and from the socio-ecological monitoring section in COAT. The funding will allow the Norwegian team to develop scenarios that are well grounded on data, and to include Varanger as a testbed for the scenarios and the spatial foresights.
Project manager: Vera Hausner
Project code: 467 1122019